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Experts predict quiet hurricane season

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This hurricane season is shaping up to be a calm one, if early predictions are correct, but forecasters had their eye on a disturbance that could bring tropical weather to the Cape Fear coast this week. The National Hurricane Center  stated Wednesday, May 6, there was a 60 percent chance that a low-pressure system over the Bahamas would develop into a cyclone affecting the North Carolina coast Thursday and Friday, May 7 and 8.

“It’s going to drift toward the coast starting Thursday,” said Dave Lowenthal, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Wilmington. The models were not in agreement as of Tuesday as to whether or when the storm would approach the coastline.

As of Monday, May 4 it was a weak system, but forecasters were keeping an eye on it to get a more accurate prediction of its direction and local impact. While high winds would not be a factor, he said, the area could see “some decent rain” if it should move onshore.

On Tuesday morning, May 5, two weather models were predicting the chance of it heading inland along the Cape Fear coast but the European model still had it well offshore, which would mean less rain. The official forecast calls for a high chance of rain both Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, meteorologists are preparing for hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and the team that has become most famous for its predictions is forecasting a quiet season.

A Colorado State University team led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach issued its pre-season forecast last month, predicting seven named storms and one major hurricane for the season that runs through Nov. 30. The forecasters predicted a 28 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline and a 15 percent chance of a strike along the East Coast.

A major hurricane is defined as one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

This marks the 32nd year Gray’s team has made hurricane predictions, with varying degrees of accuracy. But Gray said the presence of a strong El Nino effect, cooler Atlantic waters and relaxed circulation in “thermohaline circulation” caused by changes in density usually make for a quieter hurricane season.

But a light season does not necessarily mean the U.S. coastline is safe. Speaking from his home in Fort Collins, Colo., Gray noted the year of one of his most accurate predictions on every level — 1992 — is also the year Hurricane Andrew devastated parts of South Florida and did considerable damage in Louisiana. That year Gray forecast four named storms, one of them major.

Most experts agree, it only takes one. And even hurricanes not considered major can be dangerous. Hurricane Floyd was a Category 2 hurricane when it came ashore in 1999, but the 20 inches of rain it dumped in 24 hours caused severe flooding far inland, as well as significant wind damage in some coastal areas.

It has been almost more than 15 years since the Cape Fear region has experienced a hurricane like Floyd, and even longer since a major hurricane. The year 1996 brought Hurricane Fran, packing Category 3 winds with extensive damage throughout the region.

Emergency officials are working to ensure residents don’t let down their guard.

“Complacency is one of our biggest concerns,” said Warren Lee, emergency management director for New Hanover County.

Predictions are no assurance this area won’t be hit by a tropical system, he said, and even the lesser storms can cause great harm.

“We are trying to impress upon everyone the need to prepare,” Lee said. “We are not out of the bullseye yet.”

Emergency workers will hold a workshop June 3 to familiarize everyone with the procedures, equipment and potential problems they may face if the Emergency Operations Center must open. Lee encourages residents to conduct their own preparations at home.

It doesn’t matter whether one is a coastal native who has been through many storms, or a relative newcomer. Past experience cannot predict how a hurricane will behave.

“Every storm is different,” Lee said.

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