As the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season nears, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released predictions Thursday, May 22 for a near- or below-normal 2014 season.
The prediction includes a 70 percent likelihood for eight to 13 named storms, including three to six potential hurricanes with winds 74 mph or higher and one to two major hurricanes with winds 111 mph or higher.
During a May 22 news conference in Brooklyn, N.Y., NOAA administrator Dr. Kathryn Sullivan released the prediction for a near- or below-normal season.
“Several factors drive our outlook this year, one leading one is the likelihood that an El Niño will developing early in the summer or early fall,” Sullivan said. “And one way that El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity is by increasing the amount of wind shear, which inhibits cyclonic development and growth and so reduces the number and the intensity of storms.”
She said El Niño also increases the trade winds and the atmospheric stability across the Atlantic basin.
“No percentage number, no probability number high or low erases the fact that the real message is we’re starting into hurricane season, any section of our coastline can be hit by a severe tropical storm,” Sullivan said. “And one storm, whatever the probabilities are, one storm can wreak tremendous havoc. … Today needs to be, first and foremost, about preparedness for the season ahead.”
There is a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, and a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season.
Hurricane season averages from 1981 through 2010 include 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Dr. Louis Uccellini, NOAA National Weather Service director, said NOAA is working to improve model forecasts.
“It’s fitting that we would announce our Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook here in New York City given the lasting impacts of Sandy still being fresh in everyone’s mind,” Uccellini said.
Joseph Nimmich, Federal Emergency Management Act associate administrator for response and recovery, said the public needs to know the threat it faces, what to do to address the threat and what to do to recover. He reiterated that it only takes one storm.
“You need to know if you’re in a surge zone,” Nimmich said. “… Most of the devastation that you saw in Sandy was a result of surge.”
He said hurricanes can produce tornadoes, fire and flooding, and people need to know how to address all of those elements.
“It is extraordinary what the power of water can do,” Nimmich said.
Dr. Holly Bamford, NOAA National Ocean Service director, announced the new NOAA potential storm surge flood map available for the 2014 season.
“This experimental visualization tool allows us to present storm surge information in a way that communities can respond and make decisions quickly,” Bamford said. “… It only takes six inches of fast-moving water to knock an adult over. Of the 313 million people that live in this country, 40 percent of us live in coastal shoreline counties, and that number is expected to increase by 8 percent by the year 2020.”
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