Hurricane forecasts are predicting 2016 to be an average year of activity, with two different meteorological studies predicting at least two major hurricanes and 12 named storms will form in the Atlantic Ocean when hurricane season begins on June 1.
Today, Colorado State’s University’s Tropical Meteorology Project issued its annual hurricane season forecast, which sees 12 named storms, five hurricanes, two major hurricanes, 50 named storm days, 20 hurricane days and four major hurricane days.
“We anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately average activity,” the report summarized. “The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to either neutral or La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While the tropical Atlantic is relatively warm, the far North Atlantic is quite cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
However, last week’s forecast from AccuWeather predicted a slightly more active storm season for 2016. That report predicted 14 named storms over the six-month season, with four major hurricanes. The forecast predicted that three named storms would make landfall in the U.S.
The predictions come with a small catch: There’s already been one named hurricane in 2016, when Hurricane Alex formed near Bermuda in January, marking a rare winter storm formation.
